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Liquidation risk heatmap

Experimental · assumption-based simulation

Explore a hypothetical relative distribution of risk levels using completed BTC/ETH price candles and changes in open interest.

This is a relative distribution based on OI increases and assumed leverage, not actual position liquidation prices or a prediction. Maintenance margin rate (MMR) is assumed to be 0.5%. Candles use completed Bybit Last Trade prices, which differ from the Mark Price used for actual liquidation.

Fixed assumed MMR 0.5%

Loading price and OI data.

Price candles · hypothetical risk distribution

Relative intensity: low → high · not USD amounts or probabilities

If the chart is unavailable, check the data status and details below.

Select a candle to inspect its details. Use arrow keys to select candles and price levels, and +/− or the buttons to zoom. Each column is calculated after that candle closes.

Select a candle to see OHLC, the price range, relative intensity and the actual OI observation time.

Relative concentration by price

0–100 relative intensity · last completed candle

A text summary of the relative distribution appears below.

Shown when usable OI changes are available.

Bybit USDT perpetuals · completed candles only · checking data timestamps

Calculation assumptions, limitations and official sources

This is an experimental CoinCost model. It does not contain exchange-disclosed entry prices, leverage or liquidation orders for individual positions. Stronger colors do not imply a probability of price reaching a level or a return.

The last cached candle is excluded until a later price candle confirms its completion. Elapsed time after receipt alone does not make it a completed candle.

  1. The initial OI total is used only as a baseline, not added to the distribution. Positive OI changes (ΔOI) between consecutive valid samples are split equally between hypothetical longs and shorts, using that completed candle’s close as entry proxy E.
  2. One selected leverage L and fixed MMR m=0.005 apply to all hypothetical cohorts. Risk levels are long E×(1−1/L)÷(1−m) and short E×(1+1/L)÷(1+m).
  3. New cohorts are added at candle close and cannot be removed by that candle’s earlier high or low. From subsequent completed candles, cohorts whose risk levels are crossed by Last Trade prices are removed, and OI decreases proportionally shrink the remaining distribution. These simple rules can overlap in reducing weights and do not reconstruct actual liquidations or position balances.
  4. Missing price or OI data breaks the distribution and restarts its baseline at the next valid sample. Missing values are not invented. Each column represents a state calculated after its candle closes; it must not be read as a prediction available before that time.

Actual margin, added collateral, fees, funding, tiered maintenance requirements, cross margin and portfolio margin are excluded. MMR 0.5% is this tool’s assumption, not a rate applying to every real position. Intensity is relative within the loaded data window, not liquidation value in USD, actual exposure or probability.

Sources checked: